Acrostics Asia has been delivering forward-looking insights across Asian sovereigns and state-linked entities as part of its daily flow.

The proof is in the file.

Indonesia

• Outflows: Acrostics Asia shows up every step of the way through Indonesia’s worst market volatility in nearly three decades, connecting the dots to help readers anticipate what’s next.

• Danantara: Acrostics Asia mapped the sovereign fund’s reason for existence and fundraising trajectory in November 2024, three months ahead of its official launch.

• Garuda Indonesia: Acrostics Asia reported Danantara’s planned capital injection into the flag carrier in April 2025, two months before the formal announcement.

• Wijaya Karya: Acrostics Asia warned in April 2025 that Wijaya Karya was headed for another restructuring due to the infrastructure budget cuts and ballooning costs of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail. This was confirmed by the state-owned builder seven months later.

• Krakatau Steel: Acrostics Asia flagged the headwinds facing Krakatau Steel in May 2025, five months before the state-owned steel maker requested USD 500 million in working capital from Danantara.

Vietnam

• Acrostics Asia wrote in November 2025 that Vietnam’s bankruptcy law was considered largely ineffective to tackle distressed situations. To address these long-standing concerns, Vietnam replaced its decade-old bankruptcy legislation with a new law that took effect in March 2026.

• Acrostics Asia also flagged in June 2025 that Vietnamese developer Novaland likely had to go through a second restructuring, which was confirmed two months later. Some developers including Novaland fell into distress after the authorities tightened corporate bond restrictions, posing a risk to the local banks.

Singapore

• Acrostics Asia noted in April 2025 that Singapore has been growing as a cross-border restructuring hub. Apart from recognizing foreign proceedings, the city-state has also been building the ecosystem for crypto restructurings and refining its legal toolkit, such as by allowing the first “cross-class cramdown”.

• Acrostics Asia wrote in March 2025 that the jump in Singapore liquidations to the highest in at least 15 years was partly driven by the expiry of government-backed loans given during the pandemic. Acrostics Asia also flagged that more F&B and retail businesses risked being shuttered because of rising rents.

China

• Acrostics Asia wrote in May 2025 that some Chinese developers such as Sunac had started offering equity to creditors as the property sector took longer to recover. While China tried to clear the bills owed by local governments to private businesses, transferring the risks to the banks may create another problem if there’s no market mechanism for bad debt to exit the system.

• Acrostics Asia also noted that LGFVs, developers, local banks and ordinary households are all woven into the fabric of China’s economy, complicating official efforts to untangle these strands. Beijing signalled its tolerance for a slower pace of expansion in March 2026, while working on a reform of its bankruptcy law.

Sri Lanka

• Three months before SriLankan Airlines (SLA) struck an in-principle agreement with its offshore bondholders, Acrostics Asia flagged in August 2025 that the noteholders had limited negotiating leverage because of a clause in the sovereign debt restructuring.

• Acrostics Asia wrote in February 2026 that the Sri Lankan government had decided to retain control of SLA, but the flag carrier’s recovery will likely be hampered by its struggle to renew its fleet amid an industry-wide aircraft shortage.

Mongolia

• Acrostics Asia wrote in February 2026 that Mongolia will likely be an increasing source of debt supply, as the growth ambitions of its state and private entities should translate to higher funding needs.

• In March 2026, the government of Mongolia successfully issued a USD 500 million six-year bond with a 5.95% yield to refinance debt and extend some of its maturities.

Acrostics Asia connects the dots to anticipate what’s next for Indonesian flag airline Garuda Indonesia after its recapitalization.

The proof is in the file.

Key Timeline

24 April 2025

• Two months before Garuda’s announcement, Acrostics Asia reported that officials were discussing a potential capital infusion for the airline via sovereign fund Danantara.

• Acrostics Asia also flagged that the carrier was struggling to meet the required aircraft maintenance expenses and had to ground some planes due to a shortage of components.

13 May 2025

• Renegotiating Garuda’s costly leases would have been a logical move to reduce its burden, but the airline is likely hamstrung by its local in-court restructuring (PKPU) agreement.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that PKPU is like a last chance saloon where borrowers have one shot at an in-court restructuring and risk being filed into bankruptcy if they re-default.

24 September 2025

• Acrostics Asia unpacked Garuda’s results to show that it was squeezed from all sides by aircraft leases and maintenance. Negative equity also expanded to USD 1.5 billion as of end-June.

25 September 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the driver for a potential merger between Garuda and Pelita Air, the airline unit of state-owned energy company Pertamina, was likely to consolidate their resources, as the aircraft supply chain lagged behind the post-pandemic travel boom.

11 November 2025

• Acrostics Asia noted that Danantara had downsized its planned capital injection by USD 400 million to USD 1.4 billion.

• The use of proceeds also shifted from a fleet expansion towards paying the fuel debt owed by Garuda’s budget unit Citilink to Pertamina.

21 November 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Garuda was handing out stakes in return for the support from Danantara and its fellow SOEs, but this may limit the room for the airline and its subsidiaries to obtain equity financing from third parties.

• Acrostics Asia also flagged that while Danantara’s funds should help to turn Garuda’s equity positive, the airline may continue being weighed down by costly leases.

26 February 2026

• A senior Danantara official said that Indonesia is forming an aviation holding company to get “extra income without adding planes”.

• Garuda, Citilink and Pelita Air will combine their fleet to serve the same routes or travel bookings.

17 March 2026

• Garuda’s latest results showed that the recapitalization improved its balance sheet, but has not turned around its operations.

• After its equity injection, Danantara became Garuda’s biggest shareholder with a 91.11% stake.

Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📸 Snapshot: Garuda Indonesia 2025 Results

• 📸 Snapshot: Garuda Indonesia 9M25 Results

• 📸 Snapshot: Garuda Indonesia 1H25 Results

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Plane Pool

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Restructuring Fault Lines

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook: Garuda Indonesia

• 👟 Walk the Talk: Garuda Indonesia

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Garuda Indonesia’s Clean Up Operation

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Mission to Save Garuda

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Garuda Indonesia’s Clipped Wings

Three months before SriLankan Airlines struck an in-principle agreement with its offshore bondholders, Acrostics Asia flagged that the noteholders had limited negotiating leverage because of a clause in the South Asian nation’s debt restructuring.

The proof is in the file.

Key Timeline

29 May 2025

• SriLankan Airlines (SLA) told bondholders that it had appointed Lazard and Norton Rose Fulbright as its international financial and legal advisers, respectively.

• Acrostics Asia wrote on 7 June that Sri Lanka was pushing the throttle to restructure the legacy debt of its flag airline after dropping a privatization plan.

4 July 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that SLA’s bondholders were sabre-rattling by threatening to wind up the flag carrier, but a local court simply blocked them.

4 August 2025

• SLA and a group of bondholders terminated their first round of talks because their proposals were too far apart.

• Acrostics Asia flagged that the bondholders risked overplaying their hand by pushing for a full recovery, as a clause in Sri Lanka’s restructuring gave the nation a justification not to give special treatment to any group of creditors.

20 September 2025

• S&P upgraded Sri Lanka as the sovereign debt workout was unlikely to be derailed by a holdout group of its flag carrier’s bondholders.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that if the bondholders were banking on nuisance value, they had to prepare for a slog that may yield far less than what was on the table.

7 November 2025

• Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said in his budget speech that SLA’s offshore bond was expected to be restructured by year-end.

• He also noted that Sri Lanka’s earlier attempt to sell SLA did not generate enough interest from buyers.

20 November 2025

• SLA said it had struck an in-principle agreement for a bond restructuring that would include a 15% haircut along with a cash settlement and an exchange with sovereign notes.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that these terms were likely the best outcome for the bondholders given their limited negotiating leverage.

20 February 2026

• SLA rolled out a consent solicitation, exchange and tender offer for its USD 175 million guaranteed notes due 2024.

• A government official said Colombo had decided to retain control of SLA.

21 February 2026

• Acrostics Asia wrote that SLA is flying along a different trajectory from Pakistan’s flag carrier that went on the privatization route.

• However, SLA’s targeted recovery will likely be hampered by its struggle to renew its fleet amid an industry-wide aircraft shortage.

Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📒 Quick Take: A Tale of Two South Asian Airlines

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: SriLankan Airlines’ Bond Truce

• 📸 Snapshot: SriLankan Airlines FY24/25 Results

• 📒 Quick Take: Asian Flag Airlines’ Cash Plight

• 📒 Quick Take: Asian Sovereigns’ Tug of War

• 📒🎞️ Quick Take: Flight Turbulence in Asia Pacific

A model is only as good as its execution.

Rather than just reacting to events, Acrostics Asia connects the dots across Asia’s credit markets to help you anticipate what lies ahead.

The proof is in the file.

Key Timeline

14 April 2025

• Acrostics Asia flagged that Indonesian state-owned builders including Wijaya Karya were headed for a restructuring redux due to the infrastructure budget cuts and ballooning costs of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail known as Whoosh.

11 October 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Indonesia would have to come up with some hard cash as its typical SOE workaround of rolling over loans or converting debt into equity was unlikely to work with its Chinese partners.

12 November 2025

• Wijaya Karya President Director Agung Budi Waskito announced that the construction SOE was set to restructure its debt again in 2026 due to a sharp drop in revenue.

11 February 2026

• State Secretary Minister Prasetyo Hadi reportedly said that the Indonesian government would tap the state budget to repay roughly USD 7 billion of Whoosh debt owed to China.

Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Infrastructure Timebomb

• 📒 Quick Take: Asian Sovereigns’ Tug of War

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook: Wijaya Karya

Acrostics Asia has been connecting the dots across the Indonesian sovereign and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) long before volatility rocked the stock and bond markets in late January 2026.

The proof is in the file.

Key Timeline

11 November 2024

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Indonesian sovereign fund Danantara was likely designed to pool the country’s SOEs and leverage up to finance President Prabowo Subianto’s projects.

7 February 2025

• Acrostics Asia flagged that the wave of layoffs in Indonesia’s labour-intensive manufacturing sector risked dampening consumption.

16 February 2025

• Acrostics Asia noted that a revision of Indonesia’s SOE law to set up Danantara was fast-tracked through the Parliament and dividends from the SOEs would flow to the sovereign fund instead of the state budget.

11 March 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the room for then-Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati to move was more limited after the president ordered her ministry to report directly to him, instead of the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs. She was also assigned two deputies who were loyal to the president.

19 April 2025

• Acrostics Asia flagged that capital started flowing out of the country after the president took office in October 2024 partly due to fears of being caught on the wrong side of the power consolidation.

• A task force led by the Defence Minister started confiscating large swathes of allegedly illegal palm plantations and handing these areas to a new SOE.

6 May 2025

• Acrostics Asia connected the jobless numbers, savings rate, mortgage defaults and banking ratios to infer that the economy was likely weaker than what the official statistics suggested.

2 September 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that public anger grew against Sri Mulyani partly due to the more aggressive tax collection, but the problem was bigger than one person as Indonesia’s traditional growth engines were sputtering.

10 September 2025

• Despite media reports that Sri Mulyani was abruptly sacked, Acrostics Asia put the pieces together and pointed out that the president’s camp likely sought to seize the narrative as it became clear that the former World Bank managing director was serious about leaving.

14 January 2026

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Danantara transferred some dividends from the healthier SOEs to support their troubled peers, but the fund had to get third-party capital to break the cycle.

• However, concerns about Indonesia’s widening deficit may push up borrowing costs for Danantara in the international markets.

21 January 2026

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the president’s nomination of his nephew to Bank Indonesia was part of a growing centralization as the former general tightened his grip over the country’s financial guardians, SOEs and resources sector.

Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Spinning Plates

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s “New Order” Resurgence

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Strongman Part One

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Strongman Part Two

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Strongman Part Three

• 👟 Walk the Talk: Indonesia’s Economic Fissures

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Economic Cracks

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Policy Disconnect

Acrostics Asia connects the dots across Asian restructurings and helps readers to anticipate what lies ahead for Vietnamese developer Novaland.

On 9 June 2025, Acrostics Asia flagged that the company had to go through a second round of restructuring as its cashflow was tied up by project delays. This was confirmed two months later when it proposed to swap 320 million shares with shareholder loans and corporate bonds.

Acrostics Asia also wrote that Novaland had mostly followed the Chinese restructuring playbook of converting some debt into equity and prioritizing local creditors.

Key Timeline

9 June 2025

• Barely a year after completing a Singapore scheme of arrangement, Novaland was already missing payments on its restructured offshore bond.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Novaland’s predicament appeared to be a cross between the typical troubles in China and Indonesia.

14 June 2025

• Acrostics Asia took a snapshot of Novaland’s financial and legal challenges, as the developer reported heavy losses and net operating cash outflow.

• Novaland’s management said it had the potential to reverse sizeable provisions tied to its Lakeview City project as “the issues related to land use fees” were resolved.

26 August 2025

• Novaland announced its plan to swap a total of 320 million shares with some of its debt.

• Acrostics Asia analyzed Novaland’s results for the first half of 2025, which showed that its sales increase was not matched by cash generation.

20 October 2025

• Vietnam’s government inspectorate reportedly asked the police to probe Novaland for possible misuse of bond proceeds.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the potential police investigation may create an overhang that restricts Novaland’s access to the local bond market.

18 November 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Southeast Asia’s restructuring scene was mixed in 2025, with Malaysia and Singapore achieving certain milestones.

• However, Vietnam’s bankruptcy law is considered largely untested and ad-hoc negotiations with individual creditors remain a common restructuring tool.

8 December 2025

• Novaland was reportedly in talks to raise fresh funds to repay all of its retail bonds by June 2026.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Novaland had prioritized local creditors to avoid burning bridges onshore, while offshore bondholders were structurally disadvantaged.

29 January 2026

• Acrostics Asia wrote that local banks may prefer working it out with the borrowers because they are exposed to both the developers and their owners.

• On top of providing corporate and personal loans, some banks also hold a significant chunk of the bonds issued by the developers.

3 February 2026

• Despite its revenue drop last year, Novaland reported an increase in gross profits due to an accounting reversal related to its Lakeview City project.

• While Novaland’s cashflow remained under pressure, the developer retained access to domestic loans.

Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Novaland’s Debt Woes 2.0

• 📸 Snapshot: Novaland’s 2025 Results

• 💼 Brief Take: Vietnam’s Risk Zone

• 👣 Asia’s Restructuring Milestones: Southeast Asia’s Mixed Platter

Acrostics Asia has mapped Danantara’s reason for existence and fundraising trajectory even before the Indonesian sovereign fund was officially launched in February 2025.

Acrostics Asia also accurately tracked the route taken by Danantara to build its capital structure and the likely rationale.

The proof is in the file.

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Danantara’s Genesis (11 Nov 2024 – 25 Feb 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Danantara’s Bridge to Bonds (27 June – 4 Dec 2025)

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s SOE Supremo (30 Sep 2025)

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook (20 – 25 Nov 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesian SOE State of Play (14 Jan 2026)

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Strongman Part One (21 Jan 2026)

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Strongman Part Two (27 Jan 2026)

Acrostics Asia connects the dots and helps you to anticipate what lies ahead, instead of just reacting to the news.

• Indonesian Outflows

• Garuda Indonesia

• Danantara

• Krakatau Steel

• Indonesian State Builders

• SriLankan Airlines

• China’s Double Helix

• Asian Sovereigns’ Tug of War

🌊 Indonesian Outflows

In early 2026, Acrostics Asia has been consistently ahead of the curve on Indonesia’s battle against fund outflows. The move by Moody’s to cut Indonesia’s rating outlook on 5 February is likely to compound investor concerns over the growing centralization, widening fiscal deficit and a potential MSCI downgrade.

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Spinning Plates

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s “New Order” Resurgence

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Strongman Part Three

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Strongman Part Two

• 📒 Quick Take: Indonesia’s Strongman Part One

• 👟 Walk the Talk: Indonesia’s Economic Fissures

🛩️ Garuda Indonesia

Acrostics Asia was two months ahead of the official announcement that Indonesia was lining up a capital infusion for Garuda Indonesia via sovereign fund Danantara. Acrostics Asia also connected the financial, legal, operational and political dots to accurately map the flag airline’s trajectory throughout the year.

• 👟 Walk the Talk: Garuda Indonesia

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Garuda Indonesia’s Clipped Wings

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Mission to Save Garuda

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Garuda Indonesia’s Clean Up Operation

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook: Garuda Indonesia

💵 Danantara

Acrostics Asia has accurately mapped Danantara’s reason for existence and fundraising route even before the Indonesian sovereign fund was formally launched.

• 👟 Walk the Talk: Danantara

• 👟 Walk the Talk: Danantara’s War Chest

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Danantara’s Genesis

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Danantara’s Bridge to Bonds

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook: Danantara

⚙️ Krakatau Steel

Acrostics Asia analyzed the Indonesian state-owned steel maker’s financials, which showed parallels with the debt-laden textile companies that clung to a shrinking lifeline.

• 👟 Walk the Talk: Krakatau Steel

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Krakatau Steel’s Debt Load

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook: Krakatau Steel

🏗️ Indonesian State Builders

More than half a year before the official announcements, Acrostics Asia flagged that state-owned builders including Wijaya Karya and Waskita Karya had to go for another round of restructuring as President Prabowo Subianto slashed Indonesia’s infrastructure budget.

• 👟 Walk the Talk: Indonesian State Builders

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Infrastructure Timebomb

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook: Wijaya Karya

🧳 SriLankan Airlines

Three months before Sri Lanka’s flag carrier struck an in-principle restructuring agreement with its offshore bondholders, Acrostics Asia warned that these noteholders had limited negotiating leverage. A clause in Sri Lanka’s restructuring gave the nation a justification not to give special treatment to any group of creditors.

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: SriLankan Airlines’ Bond Truce

🧬 China’s Double Helix

Acrostics Asia wrote that China’s property and local government financing vehicle (LGFV) sectors are intertwined, complicating official efforts to unclog the bad debt in the system.

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: China’s Double Helix

• 👣 Asia’s Restructuring Milestones: China’s Bankruptcy Law

🪢 Asian Sovereigns’ Tug of War

State-linked entities across India, Indonesia and China are caught between performing their national duty and reining in leverage. This tug-of-war has long been a feature in the sovereign space, but now the stakes are higher because of the growing pile of debt to cover the costs of building infrastructure and subsidizing public services.

• 📒 Quick Take: Asian Sovereigns’ Tug of War
  

Garuda Indonesia was one of the best performers in Asia’s high-yield bond space this year, with the flag carrier’s USD 624.2 million 6.5% notes due 2031 soaring around 25 points to 90 cents.

Acrostics Asia reported as early as April 2025 – two months before the formal announcement – that Indonesian officials were discussing a potential capital infusion for Garuda via sovereign fund Danantara.

Acrostics Asia also connected the financial, legal, operational and political dots to accurately map the airline’s trajectory throughout the year.

Key Timeline

24 April 2025

• Acrostics Asia reported that even after three rounds of debt restructurings, Garuda still needed state support to remain airborne.

• Acrostics Asia also flagged that the national carrier was struggling to meet the required aircraft maintenance expenses and had to ground some planes due to a shortage of components.

25 April 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Garuda must plug its negative equity – which widened to USD 1.4 billion as of end-March – without tripping up its local in-court restructuring (PKPU) agreement.

2 May 2025

• Mainstream media reported that Garuda had grounded at least 15 jets because it was struggling to make maintenance payments.

24 June 2025

• Danantara announced at a press conference that it would give a USD 405 million shareholder loan to Garuda as part of an overall funding package of around USD 1 billion. The news drove a rally in Garuda’s offshore bonds.

1 August 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that President Prabowo Subianto has ordered a mission to save Garuda and the SOE battalion led by Danantara would have to comply.

24 September 2025

• Acrostics Asia unpacked Garuda’s results to show that it was squeezed from all sides by aircraft leases and maintenance. Negative equity also expanded to USD 1.5 billion as of end-June.

6 October 2025

• Garuda said it will conduct a USD 1.85 billion private placement, consisting of a USD 1.44 billion cash injection from Danantara and a conversion of the fund’s USD 405 million shareholder loan into equity.

15 October 2025

• Garuda reshuffled its management to get its rank and file in line, while stabilizing its finances and operations.

22 October 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Garuda is cleaning up its balance sheet by writing off aircraft assets that constitute more than 50% of its total net worth.

11 November 2025

• Acrostics Asia noted that Danantara had cut its capital injection by USD 400 million to USD 1.4 billion.

• The use of proceeds will also shift from a fleet expansion towards paying the fuel debt owed by Garuda’s budget unit Citilink to state-owned energy company Pertamina.

21 November 2025

• Acrostics Asia flagged that Garuda’s move to hand out stakes in return for support from fellow SOEs may limit the room for the airline to obtain equity financing from third parties.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Garuda Indonesia’s Clipped Wings (24 April - 16 June 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Mission to Save Garuda (27 June - 30 September 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Garuda Indonesia’s Clean Up Operation (8 October - 21 November 2025)

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook: Garuda Indonesia (20-25 November 2025)

Indonesian sovereign fund Danantara is a new entity with broad remit to raise financing for President Prabowo Subianto’s projects and restructure the country’s sprawling state-owned companies.

Even before Danantara was officially launched in February 2025, Acrostics Asia has accurately mapped its reason for existence and fundraising route.

Key Timeline

11 November 2024

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Danantara was designed to pool Indonesian state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and leverage up to finance President Prabowo Subianto’s projects.

2 December 2024

• Danantara was likely created to borrow more at the corporate level without busting Indonesia’s fiscal deficit ceiling.

16 February 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that a revision of Indonesia’s SOE Law to set up Danantara was accelerated through the Parliament.

• While the decoupling of SOE and state losses may help state-owned banks to unclog their bad loans, some investors question how the regulatory changes will affect SOE leverage and governance.

27 June 2025

• Danantara sought to make a USD 10 billion loan debut, which could be Southeast Asia’s biggest facility.

• Acrostics Asia flagged that potential lenders may consider narrowing the use of proceeds or backing specific projects to get around the lack of collateral.

15 July 2025

• Even though several media reported that Danantara had clinched a USD 10 billion credit line, Acrostics Asia wrote that the banks were unlikely to underwrite such a huge unsecured loan right off the bat.

• Acrostics Asia also pointed out that Danantara would likely have to syndicate the loan to a wider group of banks and build a bridge to bonds.

27 August 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Danantara’s sale of low-yield “patriot bonds” to local tycoons was pitched as a form of burden-sharing, which can be traced back to former President Suharto’s era.

30 September 2025

• While Danantara controls the restructurings and consolidations of the sprawling SOEs, Acrostics Asia flagged that the fund may eventually run into a similar challenge faced by state-owned asset manager Perusahaan Pengelola Aset (PPA) to resolve the underlying bad debt.

18 November 2025

• News broke that Danantara had launched a USD 1 billion-equivalent loan into syndication, confirming Acrostics Asia’s analysis four months earlier.

• Acrostics Asia noted that Danantara will likely have to construct a refinancing path to the international markets as the USD 1 billion facility will mature in three years.

28 November 2025

• Danantara’s treasury managing director Ali Setiawan reportedly said that the fund is exploring the possibility of issuing global bonds to diversify its sources of financing.

4 December 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that while Danantara collects dividends from Indonesian state-owned enterprises, it cannot print money or extract taxes.

• The fund will likely be able to issue some offshore notes, but the question is whether bondholders would be willing to get repaid after the banks.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Danantara’s Genesis (11 November 2024 - 25 February 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Danantara’s Bridge to Bonds (27 June - 4 December 2025)

Krakatau Steel is a perpetual burden for Indonesian officials as the state-owned steel maker continues being weighed down by weak sales and a rusty credit standing.

Acrostics Asia flagged that Krakatau’s financials resembled Indonesian textile companies Sritex and Pan Brothers, which relied on working capital loans to cover their cash conversion gap and fell into distress when the banks pulled this lifeline.

Key Timeline

20 May 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Krakatau Posco was heralded as a successful joint venture between a South Korean steel behemoth and an Indonesian SOE, but it wasn’t immune to headwinds in the Southeast Asian market.

• Challenges include cheaper steel imports from China, a cut in Indonesia’s infrastructure spending and a weaker rupiah.

9 October 2025

• Krakatau Steel asked Indonesian sovereign fund Danantara for USD 500 million in working capital and will request another USD 500 million for its restructuring.

• To secure raw materials, Krakatau obtained third-party financing that carried higher rates than banking facilities and imposed restrictions on the company.

5 November 2025

• Danantara is set to provide working capital for Krakatau, but this must come with a management overhaul.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that apart from the challenging sales outlook, the steel maker will also struggle to find private lenders on its own.

23 November 2025

• Part of the funds requested from Danantara could be used for an upfront cash component or discounted debt buyback in Krakatau’s restructuring.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the issue is Danantara cannot print money to keep Krakatau and other ailing SOEs on perpetual life support.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Krakatau Steel’s Debt Load

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook: Krakatau Steel

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Sritex’s Bankruptcy Spiral

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Pan Brothers’ Receding Rope

Indonesia’s infrastructure push under its former government has saddled state-owned builders including Wijaya Karya and Waskita Karya with mounting debt.

More than half a year before the official announcements, Acrostics Asia flagged that these state-owned enterprises (SOEs) must go for another round of restructuring as President Prabowo Subianto slashed the construction budget.

Key Timeline

14 April 2025

• The construction of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail – known as Whoosh – carried a roughly USD 7 billion price tag that may keep ballooning.

• Acrostics Asia flagged that Wijaya Karya and Waskita Karya were headed for a restructuring redux due to the drastic budget cuts.

15 April 2025

• Indonesian state-owned banks already did their national service by agreeing to roll over loans to their construction peers.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that these lenders were waiting for orders from their shareholder, Danantara, on how to deal with the non-performing loans.

10 October 2025

• Danantara’s Chief Operating Officer Dony Oskaria reportedly said that Indonesia is exploring how the joint venture operating Whoosh – Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC) – can become “self-sustaining”.

• Danantara is weighing the options of increasing equity in the operating company or handing over the infrastructure to the Indonesian government.

11 October 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the typical Indonesian SOE workaround of rolling over loans or converting debt into equity is unlikely to fly with the Chinese.

• Danantara has to cough up some hard cash, but there’s a risk of a crowding out effect as some SOEs have their own financing needs.

5 November 2025

• President Prabowo Subianto reportedly said that KCIC will receive support from the state coffers, over-ruling Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa who previously said that the Whoosh operator was Danantara’s responsibility.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that state-linked entities across India, Indonesia and China are caught between performing their national duty and reining in leverage.

12 November 2025

• Wijaya Karya President Director Agung Budi Waskito said the company is set to restructure its debt again in 2026 due to a decline in revenue, confirming Acrostics Asia’s analysis seven months earlier.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that four private banks received a steep haircut in state-owned steel maker Krakatau Steel’s restructuring, potentially serving as a warning for Wijaya Karya’s own lenders.

25 November 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the extent of Indonesia’s construction slowdown was laid bare in Wijaya Karya’s latest earnings presentation.

• State-owned builders including Wijaya Karya and Waskita Karya are preparing for a merger in the second half of 2026.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Infrastructure Timebomb

• 📒 Quick Take: Asian Sovereigns’ Tug of War

• 🔮 Indonesian SOEs 2026 Outlook: Wijaya Karya

After nearly four years of drought caused by China’s property implosion and the US rate hikes, Asia’s bond tide has returned as issuers are wading back to a more receptive offshore market.

While the high-yield “musical chairs” usually revolved around banks and bondholders swapping seats with each other, the game has benefitted from the entry of a third player: private credit funds.

However, Acrostics Asia flagged in May 2025 that the rapid growth of private credit doesn’t remove its structural shortcomings: the lower quality of some borrowers and patchy jurisdictions across the region.

Key Timeline

9-10 May 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that private credit funds were mushrooming in Asia as they were lured by opportunities ranging from scooping up distressed assets in Hong Kong to getting juicy returns from Indian borrowers.

• However, Acrostics Asia noted that the ability of the private credit firms to enforce their loans would eventually prove to be the key differentiator.

2 October 2025

• Bond sales by issuers such as India’s Vedanta Resources and Australia’s Nickel Industries drew strong demand from investors who were keen for more supply.

• Asia’s high-yield market is a game of musical chairs where lenders pass a credit to each other and hope that the music doesn’t stop prematurely.

17-18 October 2025

• Acrostics Asia broke the news that Ares Management and Tor Investment Management secured a rare court victory in Indonesia against local businessman David Salim.

• The Indonesian court granted the petition of a company controlled by the private credit lenders to replace the directors and commissioners of shopping mall operator Supermal Karawaci.

20 October 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that legal uncertainty is a key factor that has been holding back the growth of private credit in Southeast Asia.

• Creditors typically pick Singapore as the venue for dispute resolution or schemes of arrangement, but lenders often hit the same wall if the key assets are in jurisdictions that are seen to favour the borrowers.

29 November 2025

• Despite two private credit lenders’ court victory against David Salim, the Indonesian businessman and his associates have put up a resistance against the ruling.

• While Asia’s private credit market has shown some fissures, it’s unlikely to run out of players who bet that they can exit in time and make money.

9 December 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Asia’s private credit story is not just about loan allocations anymore, as managers are adjusting their pitch to highlight their structuring prowess and local relationships.

• But the party is still raging in India, where private credit investments jumped 53% to USD 9 billion in the first half of 2025 from a year earlier.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📒 Quick Take: Asia’s Mushrooming Private Credit (9 May 2025)

• 📒 Quick Take: Asia’s Bond Tide (2 October 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesian Mall Fight (17 October - 29 November 2025)

• 📒 Quick Take: Asia Private Credit’s Reality Check (29 November 2025)

• 📒 Quick Take: Asian Credit’s Shifting Currents (9 December 2025)

These include Indonesia’s mission to turn around its flag carrier Garuda Indonesia, SriLankan Airlines’ easing stand-off with a group of offshore bondholders, and VietJet’s long-running dispute with UK special situations fund FitzWalter Capital.

• Garuda Indonesia

• SriLankan Airlines

• VietJet

Garuda Indonesia

• Two months ahead of the official announcement, Acrostics Asia reported that Indonesian officials were discussing a potential capital infusion for Garuda via sovereign fund Danantara.

• Acrostics Asia also reported on 24 April 2025 that the airline was forced to ground some planes due to a shortage of components.

• Throughout the year, Acrostics Asia accurately plotted Garuda’s flight trajectory by connecting the financial, legal, operational and political dots.

SriLankan Airlines

• On 4 August, Acrostics Asia warned that a group of SriLankan Airlines bondholders risked overplaying their hand by pushing for a full recovery.

• The bondholders had limited negotiating leverage, as a clause in Sri Lanka’s restructuring gave the nation a justification not to give special treatment to any group of creditors. The local courts also blocked the noteholders’ threat to wind up the flag carrier.

• SriLankan Airlines announced on 20 November that it had struck an in-principle agreement with the bondholders for a restructuring deal that will include a 15% haircut.

VietJet

• Acrostics Asia has closely tracked the twists and turns of the legal battle between VietJet and FitzWalter.

• The tussle shone a spotlight on the JOLCO lease structure, which allows a lessor to terminate an agreement and demand full payment upon a default.

• Acrostics Asia reported on 15 November that the UK Court of Appeal had found the Vietnamese airline not guilty of contempt.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Garuda Indonesia’s Clipped Wings (24 April - 16 June 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Mission to Save Garuda (27 June - 30 September 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Garuda Indonesia’s Clean Up Operation (8 October - 21 November 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: SriLankan Airlines’ Bond Truce (7 June - 20 November 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: VietJet vs FitzWalter (14 May - 15 November 2025)

Acrostics Asia is anchored in Asia and delivers forward-looking insights across the region’s conglomerates, including Indonesia’s Salim Group and the Philippines’ Campos family who controls Del Monte Pacific.

• Salim Group

• Del Monte

• UOB vs Lippo

• Felda vs Rajawali

Salim Group

• On 30 May 2025, Acrostics Asia wrote that Indonesian conglomerate Salim Group has turned around the operations and credit standing of Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS).

• Indonesian mining and capital markets veteran Agoes Projosasmito – a long-time ally of Salim Group honcho Anthoni Salim – was appointed as BRMS’ president director in March 2022. The miner’s ability to get new loans is in large part thanks to the Salim-Projosasmito combo, according to banking friends.

• On 24 November 2025, BRMS announced that it had secured a USD 625 million syndicated loan to accelerate the construction of its underground gold mine and expand its exploration.

Del Monte

Acrostics Asia unpacked the bankruptcy of 139-year-old US canned food producer Del Monte Foods and accurately flagged the impact on its Asian parent company.

• On 2 July 2025, Acrostics Asia wrote that Del Monte Foods’ “trapdoor” trick – dropping a set of collateral to an unrestricted unit that re-pledged those assets to get new loans – set off the chain reaction that led to its bankruptcy filing.

• Acrostics Asia predicted on 4 July that while Del Monte Foods’ Asian parent, Del Monte Pacific, would likely take a hit from the deconsolidation of the US subsidiary, its cash-generating Philippine unit can be a lifeboat to pull it out of choppy waters.

• Del Monte Pacific announced on 31 July that it had recognized a full impairment of USD 703.5 million related to the US business. However, the group controlled by the Campos family said that it expected an earnings recovery on the back of its Philippine unit’s contribution.

• On 24 November, Del Monte Pacific released its quarterly results ending October 2025, which showed that total sales grew 10% to USD 234.9 million. Net profit also jumped seven-fold to USD 16.8 million partly due to operational efficiency.

UOB vs Lippo

• Acrostics Asia unpacked the 11-year legal battle between Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) and a unit of Indonesia’s Lippo Group over allegedly inflated housing loans.

• UOB was awarded less than 20% of the SGD 92 million (USD 71 million) that it had sought because of two key mis-steps, according to court documents and remarks from the Singapore judges.

• On 26 November 2025, a Singapore High Court judge upheld his decision to award the bank SGD 17.7 million (USD 13.6 million) in damages.

Felda vs Rajawali

• On 20 August 2025, Acrostics Asia wrote that Malaysian state-owned conglomerate Felda is struggling to claw back its hefty investment in Indonesian palm oil producer Eagle High Plantations.

• When Felda purchased the Eagle High stake from Indonesian tycoon Peter Sondakh’s Rajawali Group in 2016, some minority shareholders and politicians accused former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak of pushing the deal to help his Indonesian friend – which was denied by both sides.

• On 9 October 2025, Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said that Felda’s subsidiary, FIC Properties, still owes RM 2.77 billion (USD 670.4 million) to Finance Ministry unit GovCo Holdings after getting a loan to fund the Eagle High stake acquisition.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Salim Group’s Bumi Turnaround

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Del Monte’s Philippine Lifeboat

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: United Overseas Bank vs Lippo

• 📒 Quick Take: Felda’s Indonesian Albatross

China’s property sector is intertwined with its local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), complicating official efforts to unclog the bad debt in the system.

In Vietnam, Novaland is back in a cash crunch barely a year after completing its Singapore restructuring. Acrostics Asia wrote that the Vietnamese developer is following the Chinese restructuring playbook, such as converting some debt to equity and prioritizing local creditors.

Meanwhile, businesses are grappling with rising operating costs in Singapore. Rents in the city-state should eventually be pulled down as a huge supply wave will roll in from 2029, but many retail operators may not survive until then.

• China’s Double Helix

• Novaland’s Debt Woes 2.0

• Singapore Squeeze

China’s Double Helix

• Acrostics Asia wrote on 2 May that Chinese developers such as Sunac China Holdings had started dropping the pretend-and-extend exercise and the decks were stacked against offshore creditors.

• While China sought to clear the unpaid bills owed by local governments to the private sector, Acrostics Asia noted on 12 September that transferring the risk to the banks may create another problem if there’s no market mechanism for bad debt to exit the system.

• Acrostics Asia wrote on 25 October that policymakers are gradually weeding out the weaker LGFVs by curbing their debt binge. This was followed by an analysis of the proposed overhaul of China’s bankruptcy law that could be its most sweeping reform in nearly two decades.

Novaland’s Debt Woes 2.0

• Acrostics Asia flagged on 9 June that barely a year after completing a Singapore scheme of arrangement, Novaland was heading towards a second debt restructuring as its cashflow was tied up by red tape in Vietnam.

• This was confirmed two months later when Novaland proposed to swap 320 million shares with some of its debt. Acrostics Asia wrote that the Vietnamese developer had adapted the Chinese playbook of converting debt into equity, as its sales increase was not matched by cash generation.

• On 20 October, Acrostics Asia noted that a potential overhang from a police probe into the use of bond proceeds may further constrict Novaland’s funding channels and complicate its latest restructuring. This was followed by an analysis laying out the structural disadvantages of Novaland’s offshore bondholders.

Singapore Squeeze

• On 4 March, Acrostics Asia wrote that the jump in Singapore liquidations to the highest in at least 15 years was partly driven by the expiry of government-backed loans given during the pandemic. Acrostics Asia also flagged that more F&B and retail businesses risked being shuttered because of rising rents.

• Acrostics Asia analyzed the collapse of Singapore-based private club 1880 in June, followed by cinema operator The Projector in August. The Projector built a loyal following in Singapore’s indie scene, but rents alone would have eroded at least 30% of its annual revenue.

• While rents in Singapore should eventually be pulled down by an expected supply wave from 2029, Acrostics Asia wrote on 31 August that many retail operators may not survive over the next four years.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: China’s Double Helix

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Novaland’s Debt Woes 2.0

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Singapore Squeeze

Acrostics Asia has accurately predicted key developments preceding Sri Rejeki Isman (Sritex)’s shutdown weeks or even months before they unfolded.

Sritex’s controlling shareholders, the Lukminto family, waged a futile campaign to keep the Indonesian textile company as a going concern.

Acrostics Asia also flagged that the corruption investigation by the Attorney-General’s Office (AGO) would shrink the liquidation pool for creditors.

Key Timeline

17 September 2024

• Acrostics Asia warned that Sritex’s local in-court restructuring (PKPU) agreement risked unravelling as a trade creditor filed a petition to push it into bankruptcy.

• Even if Sritex tried to restructure its debt again, Indonesian shipping company Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line’s bankruptcy in 2019 had raised the bar for a PKPU amendment.

21 October 2024

• An Indonesian court declared Sritex bankrupt on the basis that the textile company had defaulted on its PKPU agreement.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Sritex’s bankruptcy is a stark reminder that a PKPU deal is like one last chance for a borrower to honour its obligations.

27 October 2024

• Acrostics Asia conducted a scenario analysis on whether Sritex could be saved from bankruptcy.

• Neither of the potential options – overturning the bankruptcy ruling, providing new money to Sritex, or consolidating the textile industry – was feasible.

4 November 2024

• Acrostics Asia’s review of Sritex’s financials showed that it swung to a net operating cash outflow of USD 5.1 million in the first half of 2024 on a sharp drop in cash from customers and big payments to suppliers.

• These numbers indicated that a one-off capital injection would not be enough to turn around Sritex’s operations as its challenges were structural in nature.

20 December 2024

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Sritex was nearing the end of the road as the company’s appeal against its bankruptcy was rejected by Indonesia’s Supreme Court.

• Even though President Prabowo Subianto ordered his ministers to rescue Sritex’s workers, their hands were tied and bailing out the company was not an option.

10 January 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the Lukminto family and the deputy manpower minister were propping up Sritex with the myth that the company could continue as a going concern.

• While Indonesia’s Bankruptcy Law does give the administrators the option of continuing the business, in reality this can only be done in certain circumstances.

15 January 2025

• Acrostics Asia noted that Sritex trumpeted the size of its workforce as a reason why it should continue its operations, but the job numbers kept changing.

• A labour union leader said many workers were already laid off or furloughed before the bankruptcy ruling, while Sritex’s financials showed that the company was reducing payments to employees.

24 February 2025

• The Indonesian government initially defended Sritex, whose controlling shareholders had a long-standing relationship with former President Joko Widodo.

• Acrostics Asia flagged that the efforts of government officials had lost momentum after they realized how complicated rescuing Sritex would be.

27 February 2025

• Local media reported that Sritex would shut down on 1 March 2025 after terminating around 8,400 workers, confirming Acrostics Asia’s earlier analyses.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the last leg in Sritex’s journey was defined by a failure of accountability as the management blamed everything but themselves.

24 May 2025

• Acrostics Asia noted that the detention of Iwan Setiawan Lukminto – the eldest son of Sritex Group’s late founder – on alleged loan sidestreaming signalled the depletion of the family’s political capital.

• Sritex’s development was being closely watched by other Indonesian clans who were making moves to protect themselves.

2 June 2025

• An investigation by the Attorney-General’s Office (AGO) into suspected corruption at Sritex had ensnared state-owned bankers.

• Acrostics Asia flagged that the recovery for Sritex’s lenders could be even lower if their collateral was confiscated by the AGO to recoup state losses.

7 July 2025

• The AGO confiscated 72 cars that should have been part of Sritex’s bankruptcy estate, in a move that would likely shrink the liquidation pool for creditors.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that AGO has shown the ability and willingness to step in when a soured loan allegedly caused state losses.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Sritex’s Bankruptcy Spiral (30 August - 4 November 2024)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Sritex’s Desperate Cling (20 December 2024 - 7 February 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Sritex’s Broken String (24 February - 13 May 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Sritex’s Scavenger Hunt (24 May - 9 July 2025)

Acrostics Asia connected the dots on the ground to infer that Indonesia’s economy was likely weaker than what the official data suggested.

Before Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati’s exit on 8 September 2025, Acrostics Asia flagged that the former World Bank managing director’s international stature had increasingly diverged from her domestic image.

Key Timeline

7 February 2025

• Indonesia was facing a wave of layoffs in the manufacturing and startup sectors, posing a risk to its economy that was already growing at the slowest pace in three years.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that accelerating layoffs could undermine the Central Bank’s efforts to stimulate growth by cutting interest rates.

16 March 2025

• Indonesia posted a rare budget deficit as of February due to a double-digit drop in state revenue.

• Acrostics Asia wrote that the state revenue was not keeping up with the pace of spending and the tax shortfall could be exacerbated by the mass layoffs.

20 March 2025

• Indonesians were dipping into their savings as they grappled with the rising costs of living and layoffs in the manufacturing sector.

• Acrostics Asia flagged that this may have a domino effect on the availability of low-cost funds for banks.

19 April 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that capital started flowing out of the country partly due to fears of being caught on the wrong side of the power consolidation around the president’s camp.

• The defence minister, a trusted ally of the president, is leading a task force that has reportedly confiscated one million hectares of illegal palm plantations.

6 May 2025

• Acrostics Asia connected the savings rate, layoff numbers, mortgage defaults and banking ratios to show that Indonesia’s economy was weaker than expected.

• Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s free school lunch program is costly and comes at the expense of other areas such as higher education funding.

6 August 2025

• Mainstream media reported that economists, think-tanks and consumers were questioning Indonesia’s second-quarter GDP data that showed the fastest growth in two years.

2 September 2025

• Acrostics Asia flagged that public anger grew against Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati partly due to the more aggressive tax collection.

• However, the problem is bigger than one person as Indonesia’s traditional growth engines are sputtering.

9 September 2025

• Acrostics Asia wrote that Sri Mulyani’s departure underscored the divergence between her international stature and domestic image.

• The protests that culminated in the looting of the former World Bank managing director’s home were likely the tipping point for her exit.

Full Acrostics Asia Coverage

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Economic Cracks (7 February - 19 April 2025)

• 📚 Acrostics Anatomy: Indonesia’s Policy Disconnect (6 May - 13 September 2025)

  ⚡ Visit www.acrosticsasia.com for more insights that connect the dots across Asia’s credit markets.